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New poll shows Trump struggling in Pa., with many planning to vote ‘against’ him

Source: PennLive July 31, 2020

By David Wenner | dwenner@pennlive.com

President Donald Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden in Pennsylvania 41% to 50%, according to a new poll.

The poll by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College also found that only 38% of respondents believe Trump is doing an excellent or good job — the same as in January.

The poll further found only 24% of Pennsylvania respondents believe the United States is “headed in the right direction,” down from 38% in January.

“I’m not going to make an argument Trump can’t win, but he obviously has his work cut out for him,” F&M political scientist G. Terry Madonna said.

The poll found that substantially fewer voters remain undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate compared with 2016.

Among Biden supporters, it found more than half, 55%, say their vote will be “against” Trump rather than “for” Biden.

The poll was done July 20-26 and includes responses from 667 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 314 Democrats, 267 Republicans and 87 independents. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Pennsylvanians gave Trump especially low marks for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with only 29% giving him a grade of A or B.

Trump received his highest mark for his handling of job creation, with 45% of poll respondents giving an A or B.

He received considerably lower marks — 37% or less giving him an A or B — in areas including handling of foreign policy, immigration and improving the health care system.

With only three months left before the election, Madonna predicts it will take a flattening of the coronavirus curve and substantial signs of economic recovery for Trump to win.

The new Pennsylvania poll adds to the weeks-long barrage of polls showing Trump trailing Biden in the six most important battleground states.

In addition to Pennsylvania, they are Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. The Real Clear Politics average of polls as of Tuesday showed Biden leading by margins of about 3% to 8%.

Trump won all of those states in 2016, although in several, including Pennsylvania, he won by the slimmest of margins.

“It’s hard to imagine Trump winning if he loses two or three of those battleground states,” Madonna said.

Still, the Trump campaign is far from giving up on Pennsylvania, with Vice President Mike Pence due to visit western Pennsylvania on Thursday to seek support from law enforcement.

Trump has been advertising heavily in the state. Biden visited several times in June.

Madonna said both campaigns are working hard to identify people who might vote for them and target them with messages. This takes place largely over social media and messaging platforms, rather than the old method of neighborhood canvassing.

The Trump campaign is known for having great expertise and financial resources for such technology-driven campaigning.

Moreover, the voter registration trend in Pennsylvania favors Trump.

As reported by The Philadelphia Inquirer on Tuesday, Republicans have picked up 165,000 registered voters since 2016, compared to 30,000 for Democrats.

As a result, a 936,000 registered voter advantage enjoyed by Democrats in 2016 has shrunk to about 800,000.

That’s significant given Trump won Pennsylvania by only 44,000 votes, or less than one percent of the total, in 2016.

On the other hand, a pro-Trump opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday warned it’s “getting late early” for Trump.

It stressed that he benefitted greatly from widespread dislike of Hillary Clinton in 2016, but there’s no similar dislike of Biden.

Nationally, much has been made of eroding support among independents who backed Trump in 2016.

The new Pennsylvania poll shows 38% of independents having a positive view of Trump’s job performance.

Among Republicans, 75% have a positive view of Trump’s job performance, while only 6% of Democrats have a positive view.

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